World Cup 2026 Predictions.
Who wins, who upsets, who lifts the trophy on July 19 — match-by-match calls for all 104 games across USA, Canada and Mexico. Updated daily.
Updated daily · 48 nations · 16 host cities · Jun 11 – Jul 19, 2026
Match 1 of 104 · Opening night
June 11, 2026 — the first prediction is live.
Mexico open the tournament at Estadio Azteca, the only venue to host three World Cup openings. Here's the prediction card FloatSchedule drops onto your calendar the moment the final draw lands.
Mexico
Host · FIFA #19
61%
Win probability
Pick Mexico →
Morocco
Pot 3 · FIFA #14
39%
Win probability
Pick Morocco →Pick a winner · Sign in to lock your prediction
Title odds · updated daily
Who will win the World Cup 2026?
Ten teams hold ~96% of the title probability. France leads on form; Argentina on roster continuity; the USA carries the largest host-continent bump of any home nation.
| # | Nation | Group | Title odds | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | D | 18% | ↑ |
| 2 | Argentina | B | 16% | · |
| 3 | England | F | 13% | ↑ |
| 4 | Brazil | G | 12% | ↓ |
| 5 | Spain | H | 11% | ↑ |
| 6 | Germany | C | 8% | · |
| 7 | Portugal | E | 6% | ↓ |
| 8 | Netherlands | A | 5% | · |
| 9 | USA | A | 4% | ↑ |
| 10 | Morocco | I | 3% | ↑ |
Model blends FIFA ranking, last 12-month xG-adjusted form, and a small host-continent prior. Probabilities sum to less than 100% — the remaining ~4% is distributed across the 38 nations outside this top 10. Not betting advice.
Group stage · 12 groups · top 2 advance
Group stage predictions.
With 48 nations and 12 groups, the new format makes second place cheaper — every group's third has a path through best-third qualification. Highlighted teams are our predicted top two.
- MexicoAdvance
- NetherlandsAdvance
- Senegal
- Saudi Arabia
Mexico's home crowd wins them tight games; Netherlands' depth carries them.
- ArgentinaAdvance
- USAAdvance
- Croatia
- Ivory Coast
USMNT upset window over an aging Croatia.
- GermanyAdvance
- JapanAdvance
- Switzerland
- Tunisia
Japan's pressing system has a real shot at finishing top.
- FranceAdvance
- DenmarkAdvance
- Ecuador
- Uzbekistan
France clear; Denmark holds off Ecuador on goal difference.
- PortugalAdvance
- BelgiumAdvance
- Canada
- Qatar
Group of two; Canada needs a win against Belgium to make it interesting.
- EnglandAdvance
- UruguayAdvance
- Iran
- Cape Verde
England top by goal difference; Uruguay's experience edges Iran.
- BrazilAdvance
- ColombiaAdvance
- Australia
- Egypt
Brazil cruise; Colombia's midfield ends Egypt's chances.
- SpainAdvance
- South KoreaAdvance
- Norway
- Panama
Spain dominant. Norway-Korea decides second on the final matchday.
- MoroccoAdvance
- ItalyAdvance
- Ghana
- New Zealand
Morocco's 2022 run was no fluke — they top a real group.
- SwedenAdvance
- NigeriaAdvance
- Austria
- Jordan
Most open group. Any of the top three could finish first.
- TürkiyeAdvance
- AlgeriaAdvance
- Scotland
- Costa Rica
Türkiye's young squad peaks here; Algeria's set pieces decide second.
- PolandAdvance
- UkraineAdvance
- Paraguay
- Uzbekistan
Lewandowski + Zinchenko axis is enough to clear a thin group.
Knockout bracket
Bracket predictions: round of 16 to the final.
The model has France and Argentina meeting again on July 19, with France edging the rematch 2–1. Morocco repeat as the tournament's dark horse, falling in the semis. Spain are this cycle's bracket buster — they end Brazil in the quarters.
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final · Jul 19
MetLife Stadium · NJ
Predicted champion
France
3
Stars after 2026
R32 and R16 omitted for clarity — full 32-match bracket lands on your calendar when you subscribe to FloatSchedule.
Method · tips
Five tips for predicting World Cup 2026.
- 01
Don't overweight FIFA rankings.
FIFA's ranking lags by ~6 months and rewards friendly wins disproportionately. Recent xG-adjusted form is a stronger signal — especially in qualifying cycles where European nations sandbag friendlies.
- 02
Host-continent advantage is real but small.
Across the last 12 World Cups, home-continent teams over-perform their pre-tournament odds by ~7%. Useful as a tiebreaker between USA / Mexico / Canada and a similar-tier European team — not enough to flip a top-4 favorite.
- 03
The first match of the group stage matters most.
Teams that win matchday one make the knockouts 86% of the time. A draw drops that to 54%, a loss to 24%. Concentrate your prediction effort on the opening fixtures — your bracket lives or dies there.
- 04
Track squad fitness in the 72 hours before kickoff.
Late injury news moves win probabilities more than any stat model adjustment. A missing first-choice keeper or holding midfielder is worth ~6–9% in match probability. Refresh predictions the morning of, not the week before.
- 05
Underdog parlays pay in the knockouts, not the group stage.
Groups are noisy but settle on form. Knockouts are single-elimination — variance compounds. If you're going to swing for a contrarian pick, make it the bracket, not the group winner.
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